Hello Hedgers! I’ve noticed a few things in the markets this past week so I thought I’d share them with you before heading off to Vegas for the week. Take a look at the S&P 500 WEEKLY chart:

The first thing you’d probably notice is the hammer candle. The white hammer indicates that the prior downtrend is about to end and may reverse to an uptrend. This is a great short-term instrument, in fact the white hammer is rather bullish because it shows that the market sold off sharply during the session and then rebounded to close slightly above the opening price level. We’ve seen 9 consecutive red candles, so we are overly extended on the weekly time frame. We are due for a bounce. If we close above 1270 we should go bullish for at least a few weeks.

Now the chart you see above has an added Slow Stochastics indicator (top). The slow stochastic oscillator compares two lines called the %K (solid line) and %D (dotted line) to predict the possibility of an uptrend or a downtrend. Unlike the previous chart, I’ve decided to use the slow stochastic oscillator to monitor a daily chart. When the %K and %D lines fall below and then rise above the 20 threshold this indicates bullish potential. Not only did we pass 20 but the %K line has crossed above the %D line within a 5-day period…the bullish signal has officially triggered!

Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com

The market gave us mixed signals again in Friday’s trading session. This has been the trend for the past week…so as a responsible blogger, I will not lead you into believing that this market will head higher nor will I convince you to short. I will make it clear right now that I’m anticipating a short move up before another leg down. Disciplined investors know that sitting out is necessary in times like this. Remember, cash is a position too! Wait for real trends to develop before making a decision to fully invest your money on the long or short side. So this is where H.A.S comes in…if you don’t see a post from me, then nothing has changed in the markets. I will only make a new post if technical analysis indicates that a reversal is developing hence my new slogan:

“Responsible traders wait for Me to Blog!”

Speaking of my new banner, I’d like to point out that Chato B. Stewart from Mental Health Humor drew and designed it for me along with the cartoon in my previous article. His site has many funny cartoons and jokes from the consumers point of view, check it out for yourself! Mental illness is no joke, but that does not mean we can not find humor and laugh about it.

Anyways, back to this post…I will not risk the integrity of my blog by posting random stock picks. I will only post sure bets. So again, leave this volatility for agressive day-traders…getting trapped on the wrong side of the fence is far worse than getting in late on a trade. Getting trapped could cost you a lot of money, getting in late is just another missed opportunity. There will be thousands of opportunities in your trading career, but losing your capital=less money to trade with=less potential profits. I’m sure you’ve heard stories where investors lose their whole account because of one dumb mistake…preserving capital and avoiding mistakes are just as important as making money in your trading lifespan. Pretend you’re running a small private company and your capital are your employees. Without any employees your company will never make a penny!

So I’m expecting more of the same this week, this volatility should continue a little longer before a decisive move up. We should get an oversold rally as we approach August but a sharp move down in August wouldn’t surprise me one bit as we break support. So while we sit and wait for an indication that a new direction is near, why don`t we check out JunkieYard Dot Com’s Blog & Win A Top Spot Contest. I really like the structure of this contest…there are more than 25,000EC credits and prizes worth more than $500 to be won. Here’s the prize list:

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Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com

What a week! I’m not loving this market volatility at all…

Profits have been hard to hang on to, it’s almost impossible to hold a long or short position throughout the day without losing half your gains. This is why I’ve been struggling to make a post this past week. We could head in either direction on a day to day basis. In the short-term, there is no guarantee that we will head lower, nor is it guaranteed that we will get a squeeze up. Instead of positioning myself on one side of the fence, I’ve been hedging my long positions with shorts. This complicated market puzzle is only for the most disciplined investors. Aggressive day-traders should also stand to benefit from this volatility…but if you’re like me and like sure bets, wait for the price to tell you when to get in. For the time being check out this sweet cartoon Chato B. Stewart drew for me…

Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com