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richard
The reason we stay in cash in times of uncertainty and confusion is to avoid days like yesterday. I think this heatmap pretty much sums up what happened yesterday when the House failed to pass the rescue plan:
I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather trade after the fact than gamble before a significant market changing event. In this volatile market capital preservation is key. When all the sectors are bloody red, CASH IS KING! Refer to my “Waiting For A Direction” article for more on this.
The S&P500 is in a classic downtrend but what is different about this chart? It is not marked up like all the others on H.A.S., lol. Unfortunately with all this government intervention this market will probably not do what they are “supposed to do”, we aren’t exactly working with a natural market this week…so all the technical analysis should be thrown out the door. Again, there is a lot of confusion in this market right now, if you were reading other blogs last night, you would’ve noticed that everyone had their own opinions about the market. All of this confused me even more, that’s why I decided to wait until today to make a new post.
Remember the 1150 level I mentioned on September 18, 2008? Well we broke that level yesterday, so shouldn’t we be heading lower today? It sure doesn’t look like it! Instead, it looks like the government will be pushing for Plan B this week. I must admit that I did go bargain hunting late yesterday, but even if Plan B goes through, I would be skeptical. As Plan B advances, there will be good opportunities for short-term trades. Always protect your trades with stop losses and be quick with the trades. Keep a close eye on the markets, if you don’t have time to do this, stay away from the markets. It’s much better to stay on the sidelines than getting stuck on the wrong side of the fence. Remember, in times like these your goal should be capital preservation and ANY RALLY IN A BEAR MARKET SHOULD BE GUILTY TILL PROVEN INNOCENT!
Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com
October 1st, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Just a bounce on low volume. The government cannot control the markets. By the way, the financials cannot be shorted but they are still going down and down. Blame the shorts on that one too.
The riff raff needs to be cleansed from the markets before rallying. Fear is there but more is needed. We are close though….
October 4th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Many people are saying buy now, look at Warren Buffet he is buying BIG TIME! But I am inclined as you are to wait it out until the market decides which direction it will go before buying. Not guessing at a bottom here, because just as you think it can not go any lower..it does.
Right now making very conservative very small option trades way out of the money.
October 6th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
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Thanks for the great comments guys. I totally agree with “The World`s Worst Stock Picker”, fear is here, but still more is needed before this market turns the other way. And Daniel, I tip my hat off to you…being conservative in this crazy market is a great move. I`m glad you all our enjoying my posts, I will have another one up fairly soon, but I must admit that I got hurt today…so I`m not in the greatest mood to write, lol.
October 6th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Using the VIX indicator, there is more fear in the markets right now than there was on Sep 11/01…fear is a good thing, fear usually leads to a nice bullish move. But mark my words, we are still in a downtrend…we may get a move up tmrw but that’s just an opportunity to get out of your longs and to look at the bear ETFs again.
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