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Big Bearish Day
richard
blog
What a big down day in the S&P 500 today…not only that but we cracked support!
As mentioned in my previous post, a descending triangle is a bearish formation. If you haven’t studied this pattern yet, make sure you do or read my previous post. Breaking support should lead us straight to 800 (red line) in the S&P but there is major support dating back to year 2003 at those levels. If we were to break those levels and even break below 760 (maroon line) then support won’t be seen till 500, which is a long ways down!
Hear me out…everyone who has called a bottom this past month is again wrong! I say it every time, but we’re still in a downtrend, the path of least resistance is clearly down. The fear indicator, VIX, was up 10% today…so fear is definitely in the markets. It may be fair to call a bottom at 800…but again, calling bottoms are for amateurs…here at Hedge Against Speculation, I won’t be able to call a bottom for you, but I could help you position yourself in the best trades possible by using technical analysis.
Note: I am still in EEV, I have a stop loss at $111.03…I will most likely be moving this safety net up as tomorrow progresses because we might find support at 800 as mentioned. Further, I didn’t indicate it in my chart, but the MACD is stepping up, this typically indicates a reversal. If we were to reverse at 800, you must keep in mind that the overall trend is down. We definitely won’t see a bull market like we did starting in 2001…with this credit crisis, companies will have a harder time borrowing money…which leads to less cash flow…which leads to slower growth.
Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com
November 21st, 2008 at 6:34 am
The only consolation from all this sell-off is that we are moving ever closer to bottoming out.
Good luck on your investment.
Cheers!
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
So we broke through 800 and even 760. Now we’re back at 800. This is a vicious market, and while I like and follow some TA, and have for about 30 years, this action has me shaking my head. I remember 74, and this has that feel. In December of 74, there was serious talk of the end of the stock market. Look what happened after that. We may be close to a bottom…if so, I think it may be a LONG bottom.
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